Business Forecasting using ForecastPro


The Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX

Contents

Course description
Course Programme
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Timberlake Consultants Ltd, the UK distributor of ForecastPro, welcome you to a one-day training course in Business Forecasting.

The Course - The course introduces the statistical methods that may be used by businesses to forecast large amounts of time series. During the course, the software package ForecastPro will be used to produce forecasting models and calculate forecasts. Although there is some discussion of the forecasting methodology, the primary focus of the course is teaching the user to operate the software. In addition to the examples shown by the training leader, delegates will be requested to study and forecast some time series. Delegates are welcome to bring their own data.

Advantages - The course will

  • Review all major business forecasting methods
  • Provide a practical and systematic approach to the modelling of time series data
  • Provide hands-on experience in building and interpreting time series models computer facilities are used extensively
  • Provide an opportunity to use your own data during the course

The Principal Lecturers - The principal lecturer is:

Ana Timberlake, MSc in Statistics and Operational Research at Southampton University (1970), is a senior statistical consultant at Timberlake Consultants Ltd.

The Company have distributed and provided technical support for Forecast Pro for over 10 years.

Cost - The cost of the course are:

1st delegate £475 + VAT = £ 558.13

The cost includes course materials, course dinner, lunch, refreshments and the use of computers. The number of delegates is restricted. Please register early to guarantee your place. Further instructions will be sent with the joining instructions. If you need assistance in locating hotel accommodation in the area, request the help of our Training Department.

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Agenda
(may be subject to change)

Registration 9H00 - 9H30

9H30 - 17H00

Session 1: Business Forecasting - an overview

  • Why forecast?
  • What is a time series
  • What is a forecast
  • Uncertainty in forecasts
  • Types of Forecasting Methods
  • Short vs Long term forecasts
  • Forecasting Methods: Forecasting by extrapolating historical data

Session 2: ForecastPro

  • Overview of ForecastPro
  • Set-up data to use with ForecastPro
  • Forecasting a single time series

Practical Session

  • Suggested exercises for delegates to gain hands-on experience

Lunch

Session 3: More about ForecastPro

  • Output Options: audit trails, forecast reports, forecast output files and script files
  • Modelling: Automatic vs custom model selection
  • Measurements of goodness of fit
  • Testing the forecasting model: hold-out sample

Session 4: Batch and Multilevel Forecasting

  • Batch forecasting (forecasting multiple items sequentially), including specifying models for individual items through the use of script modifiers
  • Defining multiple level forecast scripts and discuss top-down vs. bottom-up aggregation

Practical Session

  • Suggested exercises for delegates to gain hands-on experience

Session 5: Event Modelling

  • How to introduce events (e.g. advertising campaigns) in forecasting models
  • How to create event variables

Practical Session

  • Suggested exercises for delegates to gain hands-on experience