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LogXact 4 Results for Insurance Fraud Data

1-Sided P-Values for Logistic Regression

Conclusion

Covariate
Exact P-value
Asymptotic
P-value
LogXact 4 reveals that there is a major difference between p-values produced by exact logistic regression and asymptotic logistic regression. Moreover, only LogXact 4 with its ground-breaking hybrid network-Monte Carlo algorithm can fit an exact logistic regression to this data set with its sizable number of individual covariates. (Even prior versions of LogXact 2 cannot do it!)

Data from the Automobile Insurance Bureau of Massachusetts, cited in Mehta, Patel and Senchaudhuri (JASA, vol 95, no 449, March 2000: Efficient Monte Carlo Methods for Conditional Logistic Regression).

AC1
0.5586
0.3586
AC9
0.0757
0.0121
AC16
0.0489
0.0190
CL7
0.1590
0.0591
C11
0.0530
0.0254
IJ2
0.0079
0.0061
IJ3
0.4946
0.3030
IJ4
0.3949
0.1059
IJ6
0.3656
0.2556
IJ12
0.0132
0.0056
Note the substantial over-estimation of significance by the asymptotic method, as compared to the exact method.

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